Data solutions to solve the South West’s patient discharge crisis
Professor Christos Vasilakis, Founding Director of the Centre for Healthcare Innovation and Improvement – CHI²) and Dr. Zehra Onen Dumlu from the University of Bath discuss the IPACS project – a collaborative, data-driven approach to improving patient flow.
Delayed discharges, often known as ‘bed blocking’, is a serious operational challenge for NHS managers across the country. According to NHS England data, in February 2024 there were between 13,200 and 14,200 patients remaining in hospital each day who did not meet the criteria to stay. This accounts for more than one in eight general and acute beds in England.
While patients are deemed medically fit for discharge, they remain in hospital due to complexities in arranging necessary social care or community nursing support for a safe transition. The knock-on effects are significant, placing immense strain on acute bed capacity and negatively impacting patient flow and their experience.
The IPACS project: A collaborative, data-driven approach
To address the issue, the Improving Patient Flow between Acute, Community, and Social Care (IPACS) project was launched in 2020. This significant three-year initiative received funding from Health Data Research UK (HDRUK), an independent charity focused on using health data research to address major healthcare challenges.
IPACS brought together a diverse team, combining academic expertise with frontline NHS operational knowledge. Collaborators included the University of Bath, the University of Exeter Medical School, and significantly, the Bristol, North Somerset, and South Gloucestershire (BNSSG) Integrated Care Board (ICB).
The goal of the project was to develop an open-source computer simulation model capable of analysing the complex dynamics of patient flow. This tool would offer a potential blueprint for healthcare organisations nationwide grappling with delayed discharge pressures.
Central to the project was the application of Operational Research (OR) techniques – using advanced analytical models to dissect and solve complex systemic problems. Several team members brought extensive OR experience, with affiliations to The Operational Research Society, demonstrating the project’s robust methodological foundation aimed at enhancing healthcare efficiency.
A multidisciplinary team driving innovation
The success of IPACS hinged on its multidisciplinary collaboration. BNSSG ICB’s Head of Modelling and Analytics, Dr Richard Wood, and University of Bath Research Fellow Dr Paul Forte provided essential insights into real-world healthcare operations and ensured the project outputs were relevant and accessible to NHS decision-makers.
Academic leadership came from Professor Christos Vasilakis (founding director of the Centre for Healthcare Innovation and Improvement – CHI²) and Dr Zehra Onen Dumlu at the University of Bath, working alongside Professor Martin Pitt and Dr Alison Harper from the University of Exeter Medical School. This combined team undertook the intricate task of designing, developing, and validating the simulation framework.
Focusing on the critical ‘Discharge to Assess’ service
A key focus for the IPACS project was the transition of patients from acute settings into community care, specifically via the ‘Discharge to Assess’ (D2A) service. Optimising this service is key to improving hospital throughput. The project modelled the three core D2A pathways:
- Pathway 1 (P1): Enabling patients to return home with domiciliary support.
- Pathway 2 (P2): Providing bed-based rehabilitation for those needing more intensive recovery support post-discharge.
- Pathway 3 (P3): Catering for complex care assessments, frequently leading to long-term care placements.
The IPACS model aimed to help optimise capacity planning and resource allocation across these vital pathways.
The BNSSG region: A relevant testing ground
The Bristol, North Somerset, and South Gloucestershire (BNSSG) region, serving approximately one million people, served as a practical case study. Its demographic mix and blend of urban and rural environments reflect challenges common across the NHS. The region’s D2A pathways were experiencing significant pressure, with high occupancy and discharge delays, providing a rich, real-world dataset and demonstrating the urgent need for the solutions IPACS explored.
Operational Research and simulation modelling in practice
Operational Research and simulation modelling in practice
Professor Vasilakis and Dr Wood pinpointed the core management challenge: the complex interdependencies between acute, community, and social care services. Bottlenecks in community and social care inevitably impact upstream services, contributing to emergency department pressures and ambulance handover delays.
The IPACS team used real-time data on patient occupancy and discharge delays to build their model. This allowed them to establish baseline performance and, critically, to run “what if” scenarios, varying parameters like length of stay and arrival rates to understand potential impacts of service changes.
Computer simulation modelling, a cornerstone of OR, was central to this. The model allowed the team to:
- Simulate patient journeys through the D2A pathways in detail.
- Test potential interventions virtually to assess their likely impact on flow and delays.
- Analyse how best to allocate resources to mitigate discharge delays.
- Account for time-varying demand patterns.
Built using the open-source ‘R’ programming language, the model prioritised accessibility and transparency.
Demonstrating real-world impact and future potential
The IPACS model provided valuable quantitative insights. Outputs clearly demonstrated the potential benefits of achieving target pathway splits and reducing lengths of stay within the D2A service. Significantly, estimates generated by the model were used to support a £13 million business case for enhancing the local D2A system – highlighting the project’s tangible value in informing strategic investment decisions.
The team acknowledged the model does have some limitations. It doesn’t yet capture every element of discharge, such as specific social care inputs, palliative care routes, or detailed post-D2A placement dynamics. Data completeness also needs some ongoing attention. Future work could involve expanding the model’s scope to incorporate social care elements more deeply, analyse the impact of acute capacity constraints, optimise home-based care models, and potentially develop faster analytical tools.
The ongoing challenge and strategic steps forward
Tackling delayed discharge requires effective strategies, and the IPACS project highlights the value of OR. Using OR methods such as simulation modelling allows NHS managers to better understand complex discharge pathways, evaluate potential solutions before implementation, and make more informed, evidence-based decisions about resource allocation to improve patient flow and reduce delays.