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NCA whitepaper outlines ‘critical’ challenges facing adult social care

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The adult social care system’s funding shortfall could reach £18.4bn within a decade, according to a new whitepaper from the National Care Association and HCR Law.


The adult social care sector in the UK is facing a critical financial crisis, as outlined in a recent whitepaper that examines key challenges through the lenses of funding, workforce, and regulation. The whitepaper, Adult social care: Steering through change, was published by the National Care Association (NCA) in partnership with HCR Law. It paints a stark picture of a sector struggling to stay afloat, with urgent reforms needed to prevent widespread collapse.

The whitepaper explores three critical areas – funding, workforce and regulation – proposing immediate and long-term strategies to address the challenges and to create and thriving, robust sector. Emphasising the intricate web of the adult social care landscape, the report underscores the need for a unified, cross-party approach to implement meaningful changes, and welcomes the recent announcement of the independent commission led by Baroness Louise Casey.

Nadra Ahmed, CBE, Executive Co-Chairman of the NCA, said: “Despite the challenges we face, we have the appetite to ensure that we start to consider and put forward solutions. The paper considers how to overcome the challenges and create a thriving, robust sector which is fit for purpose. It reconfirms the sector’s commitment to playing our part in overcoming the challenges and delivering the rewards.”

Funding crisis threatening sector’s viability

At the heart of the sector’s instability is a glaring funding gap. The Health Foundation estimates an annual shortfall of £8.4 billion, leaving care providers unable to cover basic operational costs, let alone invest in improvements or expansions. This financial strain has already led to bankruptcies and a reduction in available care placements.

Citing the Nuffield Trust, the report argues that the 2024 Budget exacerbated the problem, adding an estimated £2.8 billion in costs to independent care providers. While the planned National Living Wage increase from April 2025 is a positive step for worker compensation, it adds further pressure to an already fragile financial ecosystem. Projections indicate that without significant intervention, the funding gap could grow to £18.4 billion by 2032/33.

Workforce shortages hitting care quality

The sector employs 1.6 million people, representing 5.8 per cent of the UK workforce. The report stresses that years of low pay and worsening working conditions have led to the sector’s high turnover and difficulty recruiting and retaining workers. The Budget, it argues, has worsened these issues, increasing the risk of safeguarding issues that local authorities must manage.

The report stresses that passion alone cannot sustain the workforce; substantial government investment is required to implement the Skills for Care workforce strategy, which aims to elevate social care as a respected and viable career. Alongside this, the report also calls for development of robust career paths, creation of coaching and networking opportunities – and the empowerment of experienced staff while developing the next generation of care workers.

Looking further ahead, the paper supports the notion of a National Care Service. It argues that although the care industry is already interconnected, a fully integrated system incorporating local care services could provide significant, long-term benefits. The proposal aims to create a cohesive and efficient care system which can better serve the UK.

Regulatory inconsistencies erode public trust

Regulation, critical for maintaining care standards, is another area of concern cited in the whitepaper. It criticises the CQC for inconsistent inspection quality and a lack of public confidence in its ability to enforce high standards. Variations in local government oversight further complicate the regulatory landscape, undermining efforts to safeguard service users. The report suggests that comprehensive reform of the CQC, or even the creation of a new regulatory body, may be necessary to restore trust and accountability.

Rebecca Leask, Partner and Head of Healthcare at HCR Law, commented: “In our work, we see the challenges and opportunities faced by all stakeholders in social care and support, from local government and public sector bodies to private and public care providers. We see firsthand their dedication and passion for their work. We take great responsibility knowing the work we do in advising our clients in this sector helps them navigate these challenges and seize opportunities, enabling them to continue delivering for service users and taxpayers alike.”

The whitepaper is available to download from HCR Law.